What’s Going On With the 1-2 Steelers? – A Summation of September

One and Two.  That’s the record we’re staring at as the Steelers completed September. A record while not horrible; it’s certainly not great and certainly not what any of us expected at this juncture.  It’s a record that doesn’t scream panic but it spells worry.  This is a team that through the first three games is actually happy to have had their bye week scheduled for the fourth week of the season.  If you asked me before the season started, I’d have said it was a bad thing to have the bye that soon, I’ve changed my mind.

The Steelers have looked great at times on the offensive side of the ball; well, in regards to their passing attack.  Big Ben has looked nothing short of elite and through the first three games was number two in the league with a 109.2 passer rating. He’s thrown for 904 yards, 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception. He’s been allowed to play the way he knows how and the way that’s made him special throughout his career, extending plays.  We all wondered what Todd Haley may do in regards to Big Ben, it seems he’s going to let him play ball. Haley has shown me that he knows what his strengths are on offense and he’s going to use those strengths.

In addition to Big Ben’s extreme success thus far, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Heath Miller have all shown they are at the top of the league at their respective positions as well. Miller already has 4 TD grabs in 3 games and is becoming an essential part of this offense in the red zone; a move that I felt should have been made years ago. His hands are a sure as any other tight end in this league and he may set career highs in catches, yards and TD receptions this year at the pace he’s on now.  Wallace has looked really good coming off the hold out; garnering 17 catches and 234 yards to go along with 3 TD’s.  The catches and yards are both second to Antonio Brown who has a slight edge on him with 18 catches and 240 yards to go along with one TD.  With those numbers being put up, the passing attack is in great shape. Not to be forgotten in all of this is Emmanuel Sanders who has 10 catches for 121 yards but looks every bit the part of a top level receiver and could be just that if the Steelers lose Wallace in 2013. 

If I told you before the season started the team would be 1-2 and you had to guess which offensive unit was the problem unit, you’d all say offensive line, without hesitation. I would have said the same thing and did so in my season preview.  Shockingly, through September they are not the issue.  The unit has had some problems, certainly, but the pass protection hasn’t been horrific. Through 3 games they’ve allowed 9 sacks but only 1 vs. the Raiders and an average of 3 per game for this unit really is an improvement.

They may play a role in the real issue, but in my opinion it’s a small role. The real issue is the running attack. They are atrocious thus far.  While the passing attack ranks 6th overall in the league, the rushing attack ranks 30^th, dropping the overall offense to 16^th in the league. Middle of the pack.  Well, I can’t stress enough, the passing attack is 6^th, and the rushing is 30^th. Get the picture?  Isaac Redman who I made a case for taking over for Mendenhall permanently is the team’s leading rusher with 72 whopping yards through 3 games!  He’s averaging 2.3 yards per carry.  The team’s leading yards per carry guy, Jonathan Dwyer has a grand old average of 2.9 yards per carry.  See a trend?  Many may say well that’s the line not opening holes. Honestly, I’d love to blame the line, I rode them all year last year and years prior but I’m not seeing it that way so far. I don’t think the backs are hitting the holes, they aren’t showing a burst of speed when needed and they are costing the team much needed time of possession.  This team is in dire straits when it comes to the running game and we can only hope that the return of Rashard Mendenhall can cure what ails it.  Hopefully he’ll be back after the break but don’t hold your collective breaths for an immediate impact.  Mendenhall will need to slowly work his way back into the rotation before he can fully take over the bulk of the carries. In the meantime my belief is this; Haley and Mike Tomlin need to pick a back and provide that back the bulk of the carries each game. I think part of this problem is the lack of consistency and the inability for these guys to get a feel for the game. The rotation of backs between Redman, Dwyer, Baron Batch and even Chris Rainey is more of a disruption rather than a benefit.  It’s clearly not working. Provide 25 carries for one guy and split the other 5 to 10 carries elsewhere. If they do this, they’ll see an improvement. My pick of this group to get those 25 carries would be Dwyer, I think he contains the most ability and is the best runner the team currently has. 

I mentioned time of possession as a necessity for this offense and that obviously needs to be helped out by the running attack. That time of possession number is not only a benefit to the offense, but this year, more importantly it will help the defense.  The prized unit of the black and gold has certainly had its share of struggles as well and as of today one might say it’s best to keep that unit off the field as much as possible.

While overall through three weeks the team ranked 7^th in defense, they haven’t played well enough to show anything for that ranking. Overall defense is measured in yards allowed, the telling statistic is points allowed where this team ranks tied for 18^th, allowing 25.0 points per game.  That’s far too many.  They are 12 points off the number one team through three weeks, Seattle, who is allowing a league low 13.0 points per game.  The general rule of thumb for teams is if you can hold your opponent to 17, you should win the game.  Well that would certainly apply with this team if it were happening regularly. Offensively they’ve scored 19, 27 and 31.  However they’ve given up 31 (you can knock off 6 if you’d like for a return INT for a TD vs. Denver), 10 (win vs. the Jets) and 34.  Holding the Jets to 10 is no prized feat either. In my opinion the Jets are terrible and they lucked into 48 points in week 1.  They have no QB, and no real offensive threat.  The Steelers have consistently shown the inability to come through in the clutch as they’ve blown leads in the 4^th quarter vs. both Denver and again in Oakland.  The lead against Oakland was 10 points and here’s a stat for all of you; Oakland hadn’t overcome that big of a deficit in the 4^th quarter in their last 48 attempts to do so.  The black and gold decided to break that streak for the Raiders.

When you look at the stats on a macro level you say how could this be?  They rank 5^th in pass defense in terms of yards allowed, something must be going right.  Well, look on a micro level.  Part of the reason they rank that highly is their opponents have attempted the 4^th fewest amount of passes against them through three weeks, of course you’re not going to give up the passing yards if the teams aren’t throwing as often.  The issue is twofold.  One, the Steelers may not give up a ton of yards as a whole, but what’s happening is they are giving up big plays and allowing catches at crucial points in the game.  The Steelers opened up against Denver in the 2^nd half with a 16 play and nearly 9 minute FG drive.  In response to that FG drive the Broncos came out and had a 2 play, 80 yard TD drive that lasted a grand total of 21 seconds.  All passing yards.  The Broncos then had 4^th quarter scoring drives of 80 yards and 51 yards.  Where’s the defense when it counts?  Let’s look at the loss against Oakland.  Carson Palmer had a grand total of 37 passing yards in the first half but finished with 209 on the game including three TD passes.  The Raiders had 4 drives in the second half, all 4 resulted in points. They had 2 TD drives of 48 and 80 yards to go along with 2 FG drives, including the game winner as time expired, of 50 and 49 yards.  If you go to the end of the 2^nd quarter the Raiders put up points on their final 5 possessions, mostly passing yards. 

The second issue in the passing game is the injury plagued secondary. First Ryan Clark missed the opener in Denver due to his sickle cell trait. Then Troy Polamalu has missed the last 2 games with a calf strain.  Is that to blame for everything? No, but Ryan Mundy is neither Polamalu nor Clark so it certainly doesn’t help.

The rushing defense is not guilt free in all of this either.  They are ranked 15^th in the league, allowing an average of 101 yards per game. When’s the last time the Steelers have averaged a number so high through any number of games?  The linebackers are led by Larry Foote with 23 tackles, which in fact is the team lead as well. However, where in the world are Timmons and Woodley?  Timmons specifically comes to mind as he only has 12 total tackles through 3 games. He should be averaging close to that per game quite honestly. Sometimes the importance of Timmons is overlooked but he’s a true cog in this defense and as he goes, the team goes. He’s been relatively nonexistent. Statistically Woodley hasn’t been as good as that either as he only has 9 tackles, including a team high 2 sacks. However, I give Woodley a bit more of a pass on this. He’s by far the most explosive player on the field for this defense right now without Polamalu and James Harrison in there so teams can concentrate on him.  Woodley has certainly disrupted some plays and been a factor here and there, however he needs to do more. I believe he’d tell you that himself. Woodley and Timmons are both pro bowl caliber players and I don’t see any reason why they can’t and won’t rebound; we just need them to do it soon.  The defensive line is struggling as well as Big Snack Casey Hampton and the Beard Brett Keisel lead the way with 6 tackles each. I am ok with Hamptons numbers but Keisel and Ziggy Hood (4 tackles) need to do more to disrupt the rushing attack of the opponents.

Collectively the defense is looking old. Hampton and Keisel are in their mid 30’s and both coming off injuries last year.  James Harrison is also in his mid 30’s and hasn’t played due to injury so far this year. Troy Polamalu is in his 30’s and has missed 2 of three games due to injuries.  Age has a factor in health and it has a factor in play.  This team used to be good for 3, 4 or even 5 sacks a game in their prime. They are now averaging less than 2 per game. The key to Dick Lebeau’s schemes are blitzing and getting to the QB, if these guys can’t do it, for whatever reason, then the defense will look like this all year. 

Blitzing and disrupting the QB is also a key to gaining turnovers, thus far they have only nabbed 3, which is an improvement upon last year at this same time, but not good enough to have the team on the winning side of things.

Let’s not forget about the penalties this team has put up on both sides of the ball. The discipline is not there and needs to change immediately. I don’t know if Tomlin needs to start fining these guys for penalties or making them run suicide drills but something has to give. They have a total of 25 penalties for 196 yards in only three games. That number is not only enormous, it’s unacceptable.  They need to knock that down to about 3 or 4 penalties a game, this 7 and 8 stuff is absurd.

So with all of the above having been broken down, one and two seems about right, in terms of record. I led things off by saying it’s not time to panic and I believe that. Worry, sure. There are obviously plenty of items for concern.  The good news is this, it’s only three games. While we may say that veteran is just another term for old, it could mean two things in this case. Yes, the team is a bit old, specifically on defense, but it means experienced too. This team has a lot of experience left on both sides of the ball and if anyone can turn it around it will be the Steelers. 

My optimistic prediction in the September issue of Steel Nation Magazine of 12-4 may need to be re viewed as a precarious 1-2 start would indicate otherwise but I’m going to stick with it, for now. 

The team clearly has the offensive passing weapons. Rashard Mendenhall should be on his way back sooner than later, which ideally will help this running attack. There is still potential for 1^st overall pick David DeCastro to return later this year and bolster the offensive line and I trust Big Ben to lead and carry the team to victory at any cost. He’s that good. 

Defensively the starting unit has not played together yet so we need to see everyone on the field at once before we can get a true measure of what they are. The bye week should enable Polamalu and hopefully Harrison to return for the Eagle game and maybe more importantly it will allow these guys to work with Lebeau on adjusting schemes and delivering big plays.

While this team and this year may be a continued transition from one era of Steeler success to another era of Steeler success (hopefully) there is no reason to hit the red button yet, stop freaking out Steel Nation, give it the month of October and then let’s see where they are. You can worry, I am worried too, but let’s proceed with some cautiously optimistic views, these guys have faced far more adversity than this before and have come out on the other side just fine.  Until they show me they can’t do it, I trust that they can do that again.